If you’re following mortgage rates because you know they impact your borrowing costs, you may be wondering what the future holds for them. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to answer that question because mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast.

But, there’s one thing that’s historically a good indicator of what’ll happen with rates, and that’s the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Here’s a graph showing those two metrics since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:

As the graph shows, historically, the average spread between the two over the last 50 years was 1.72 percentage points (also commonly referred to as 172 basis points). If you look at the trend line you can see when the Treasury Yield trends up, mortgage rates will usually respond. And, when the Yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. While they typically move in sync like this, the gap between the two has remained about 1.72 percentage points for quite some time. But, what’s crucial to notice is that spread is widening far beyond the norm lately (see graph below):

If you’re asking yourself: what’s pushing the spread beyond its typical average? It’s primarily because of uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, other economic drivers, and the policy and decisions from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are all influencing mortgage rates and a widening spread.

Why Does This Matter for You?

This may feel overly technical and granular, but here’s why homebuyers like you should understand the spread. It means, based on the normal historical gap between the two, there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

And, experts think that’s what lies ahead as long as inflation continues to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal . . . However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Similarly, an article from Forbes says:

“Though housing market watchers expect mortgage rates to remain elevated amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking war on inflation, they believe rates peaked last fall and will decline—to some degree—later this year, barring any unforeseen surprises.”

Bottom Line

If you’re either a first-time home buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep on top of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts think will happen in the coming months.

There have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer. These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.

Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:

“[H]ome prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory. And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:

“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

As you can see in the graph below, we’ve been at or near record-low inventory levels for a few years now.

That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on prices. Bankrate puts it like this:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:

“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”

Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.

With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.

Bottom Line

A lot of people expected prices would crash this year thanks to low buyer demand, but that isn’t happening. Why? There aren’t enough homes for sale. If you’re thinking about moving this spring, let’s connect.

In March, the real estate market in Dunwoody, Sandy Springs, and neighboring areas experienced a notable upswing in activity. The decline in mortgage rates during the month led to a surge in demand from buyers, resulting in a situation similar to last spring. As a result, there was an abundance of property viewings, multiple offers, and bidding wars, all of which resulted in stronger prices for sellers. Overall, the market was the strongest we’ve seen in 2023.

Key Points

• Dunwoody’s average sales price increased significantly from the previous month – breaching the 700s, while Sandy Spring’s remained relatively unchanged.
• Average days on market for both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs remained fairly steady – however, they are higher than this time last year.
• Both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs only saw minuscule increases in new homes on the market.

Average Sales Price

The average sales price in Sandy Springs for March 2023 was $723,297, representing a 6.27% decrease from February but only a 0.1% change from March 2022. Meanwhile, in Dunwoody, the average sales price increased significantly from $568,666 to $700,263, which is a 23.12% increase. Compared to last year’s period, the average price in Dunwoody is now 20% higher.

Average Days on Market

While the average days on market for both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs remained steady, they were strikingly higher than this time last year. Dunwoody’s average days on the market remained unchanged from February at 31 days, but this represents a significant 158.3% from last year when the average days on market was 12. Meanwhile, Sandy Springs experienced a slight increase in the average days on the market from 41 to 46 days. Like Dunwoody, the average days on the market in Sandy Springs was also much lower in March 2022 at only 21.

 

The fluctuation in days on the market over the past year can be attributed to several factors. Notably, homes listed during the holiday season and early months of the year, when mortgage rates were higher, may have gained more traction during the spring market in light of the subsequent drop in rates.

 

Months Supply of Homes for Sale

Dunwoody saw no change in months supply remaining at 0.7 from February. Meanwhile, Sandy Springs increased slightly from 1.5 to 1.7 months supply, which is a 63.6% increase from March 2022.

 

 

Homes for Sale

Both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs only saw minuscule increases in new homes on the market. Dunwoody saw relatively no change from the previous month, going from 24 to 26 homes for sale. Sandy Springs also increased only slightly from 112 to 130 homes for sale.

Pending Sales

Pending sales typically take between 15 and 60 days from contract to closed sale. Some homes will close while other contracts will. Pending sales is still a valuable metric for understanding the types of homes – and locations – that buyers are looking for.

Sandy Springs saw a 27.78% increase – 54 to 69 pending sales- from February to March, and Dunwoody’s pending sales decreased from 39 to 32 pending sales – a 17.95% decrease. Sandy Springs had a 27.4% decrease in pending sales from March 2022, which had 95. Dunwoody saw relatively no change from March 2022, decreasing only by 8.6%.

Key Takeaway

 

In summary, the real estate market in Dunwoody and Sandy Springs experienced remarkable growth at the start of the spring market. While Sandy Springs didn’t see as much as Dunwoody, it’s still high in demand and a strong seller’s market with low inventory and good prices. Dunwoody’s market is a strong seller’s market with very low inventory of homes for sale and demand at its highest. The market in both areas is expected to remain active and competitive in the near future.

 

*All data from First Multiple Listing Service. InfoSparks© 2023 ShowingTime.