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Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing?

There have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer. These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.

Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:

“[H]ome prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory. And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:

“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

As you can see in the graph below, we’ve been at or near record-low inventory levels for a few years now.

That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on prices. Bankrate puts it like this:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:

“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”

Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.

With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.

Bottom Line

A lot of people expected prices would crash this year thanks to low buyer demand, but that isn’t happening. Why? There aren’t enough homes for sale. If you’re thinking about moving this spring, let’s connect.

KCR March 2023 Market Report

In March, the real estate market in Dunwoody, Sandy Springs, and neighboring areas experienced a notable upswing in activity. The decline in mortgage rates during the month led to a surge in demand from buyers, resulting in a situation similar to last spring. As a result, there was an abundance of property viewings, multiple offers, and bidding wars, all of which resulted in stronger prices for sellers. Overall, the market was the strongest we’ve seen in 2023.

Key Points

  • Dunwoody’s average sales price increased significantly from the previous month – breaching the 700s, while Sandy Spring’s remained relatively unchanged.
  • Average days on market for both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs remained fairly steady – however, they are higher than this time last year.
  • Both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs only saw minuscule increases in new homes on the market.

Average Sales Price

The average sales price in Sandy Springs for March 2023 was $723,297, representing a 6.27% decrease from February but only a 0.1% change from March 2022. Meanwhile, in Dunwoody, the average sales price increased significantly from $568,666 to $700,263, which is a 23.12% increase. Compared to last year’s period, the average price in Dunwoody is now 20% higher.

Average Days on Market

While the average days on market for both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs remained steady, they were strikingly higher than this time last year. Dunwoody’s average days on the market remained unchanged from February at 31 days, but this represents a significant 158.3% from last year when the average days on market was 12. Meanwhile, Sandy Springs experienced a slight increase in the average days on the market from 41 to 46 days. Like Dunwoody, the average days on the market in Sandy Springs was also much lower in March 2022 at only 21.

 

The fluctuation in days on the market over the past year can be attributed to several factors. Notably, homes listed during the holiday season and early months of the year, when mortgage rates were higher, may have gained more traction during the spring market in light of the subsequent drop in rates.

 

Months Supply of Homes for Sale

Dunwoody saw no change in months supply remaining at 0.7 from February. Meanwhile, Sandy Springs increased slightly from 1.5 to 1.7 months supply, which is a 63.6% increase from March 2022.

 

 

Homes for Sale

Both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs only saw minuscule increases in new homes on the market. Dunwoody saw relatively no change from the previous month, going from 24 to 26 homes for sale. Sandy Springs also increased only slightly from 112 to 130 homes for sale.

Pending Sales

Pending sales typically take between 15 and 60 days from contract to closed sale. Some homes will close while other contracts will. Pending sales is still a valuable metric for understanding the types of homes – and locations – that buyers are looking for.

Sandy Springs saw a 27.78% increase – 54 to 69 pending sales- from February to March, and Dunwoody’s pending sales decreased from 39 to 32 pending sales – a 17.95% decrease. Sandy Springs had a 27.4% decrease in pending sales from March 2022, which had 95. Dunwoody saw relatively no change from March 2022, decreasing only by 8.6%.

Key Takeaway

 

In summary, the real estate market in Dunwoody and Sandy Springs experienced remarkable growth at the start of the spring market. While Sandy Springs didn’t see as much as Dunwoody, it’s still high in demand and a strong seller’s market with low inventory and good prices. Dunwoody’s market is a strong seller’s market with very low inventory of homes for sale and demand at its highest. The market in both areas is expected to remain active and competitive in the near future.

 

*All data from First Multiple Listing Service. InfoSparks© 2023 ShowingTime.

Homebuyer Activity Shows Signs of Warming Up for Spring

The spring season appears to be warming up in housing as more and more buyers enter the market. And after rising mortgage rates sidelined so many buyers last year, that’s a good sign for sellers. Realtor.com has the latest:

“Spring is officially here, and like green shoots emerging from the bleak winter, new data suggests that more buyers are back in the market, although more subdued compared to a year ago.”

We know buyer activity is trending up because of mortgage purchase application data. According to Investopedia:

“A mortgage application is a document submitted to a lender when you apply for a mortgage to purchase real estate.”

That means the number of mortgage applications shows how many buyers are applying for mortgages. Put another way, an increase in mortgage applications means an increase in buyer demand – and as Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explains, application activity started ramping up as mortgage rates fell steadily in March:

“Application activity increased as mortgage rates declined . . . recent increases, along with data from other sources showing an uptick in home sales, is a welcome development.”

In fact, we can see how mortgage rates have a direct impact on applications over time. As rates rose dramatically last year, applications fell in response (see graph below):

The recent uptick in mortgage applications, as well as the decline in mortgage rates, is good news for sellers because it means more buyers are actively looking for homes.

What This Means for You

Buyers are coming this spring, which is typically the busiest time of the year in real estate. And as Realtor.com tells us, if you’re a seller, you need to prepare:

“If homeowners are planning to sell in 2023, now is the time to get ready.”

The means working with a local real estate agent to maximize your home’s appeal and get it listed at the ideal price for your area.

Bottom Line

The housing market is warming up for spring. If you’re thinking about selling your house and taking advantage of this recent uptick in buyer activity, let’s connect.

Home Ownership Concept

Why You Need an Expert To Determine the Right Price for Your House

If your lifestyle has changed recently and you’re ready to make a move, taking advantage of today’s sellers’ market might be just the answer for your summer plans. With homes continuing to get multiple offers, this could be your moment to get the contract you’re looking for on your house if you’re ready to sell.

And here’s the thing – you need an expert on your side to ensure you make all the right moves when you do, especially when it comes to pricing your house. Even in this competitive market, you can’t stick just any price tag on your home and get the deal you want. A key piece of the puzzle is setting the right asking price so you can help buyers notice your home (and get excited about it) from the very first time they view the listing. That’s where a real estate professional comes in.

Why Pricing Your House Right Is Important

The price you set for your house sends a message to potential buyers. Price it too low and you might raise questions about your home’s condition or lead buyers to assume something is wrong with the property. Not to mention, if you undervalue your house, you could leave money on the table which decreases your future buying power.

On the other hand, price it too high, and you run the risk of deterring buyers. When that happens, you may have to do a price drop to try to re-ignite interest in your house when it sits on the market for a while. But be aware that a price drop can be seen as a red flag for some buyers who will wonder why the price was reduced and what that means about the home.

In other words, think of pricing your home as a target. Your goal is to aim directly for the center – not too high, not too low, but right at market value. Pricing your house fairly based on market conditions increases the chance you’ll have more buyers who are interested in purchasing it. That makes it more likely you’ll see multiple offers, too. And if a bidding war happens, you’ll likely get an even higher final sale price. Plus, when homes are priced right, they tend to sell quickly.

To get a look into the potential downsides of over or underpricing your house and the perks that come with pricing it at market value, see the chart below:

Why You Need an Expert To Determine the Right Price for Your House | MyKCM

Lean on a Professional’s Expertise

There are several factors that go into pricing your house, and balancing them is the key. That’s why it’s important to lean on an expert real estate advisor when you’re ready to move. A local real estate advisor is knowledgeable about:

  • The value of homes in your neighborhood
  • The current demand for houses in today’s market
  • The condition of your house and how it affects the value

A real estate professional will balance these factors to make sure the price of your house makes the best first impression and gives you the greatest return on your investment in the end.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling, pricing your house appropriately is key. Let’s connect to make sure your house is priced right for the local market, for your home’s condition, and to stand out from the competition.

Buyers Want To Know: Why Is Housing Supply Still So Low?

One key question that’s top of mind for homebuyers this year is: why is it so hard to find a house to buy? The truth is, we’re in the ultimate sellers’ market, so real estate is ultra-competitive for buyers right now. The number of buyers searching for a home greatly outweighs how many homes are available for sale.

While low inventory in the housing market isn’t new, it’s a challenge that continues to grow over time. Here’s a look at two reasons why today’s housing supply is low and what that means for you.

1. New Home Construction Fell Behind for Several Years

The graph below shows new home construction for single-family homes over the past five decades, including the long-term average for housing units completed. Builders exceeded that average during the housing bubble (shown in red on the graph). The result was an oversupply of homes on the market, so home values declined. That was one of the factors that led to the housing crash back in 2008.

Since then, the level of new home construction has fallen off. For the last 13 straight years, builders haven’t been able to construct enough homes to meet the historical average (as illustrated in green on the graph). That underbuilding left us with a multi-year inventory deficit going into the pandemic.

Buyers Want To Know: Why Is Housing Supply Still So Low? | MyKCM

2. The Pandemic’s Impact on the Housing Market

Then, when the pandemic hit, it fueled a renewed appreciation and focus on the meaning of home. Having a safe space to live, work, school, and exercise became even more important for Americans throughout the country. So, as mortgage rates dropped to at or below 3%, buyers eagerly entered the market looking to capitalize on those low rates to secure a home that would fulfill their changing needs. At the same time, sellers hesitated to put their houses on the market as concerns about the pandemic mounted.

The result? The number of homes available for sale dropped even further. A recent article from realtor.com explains:

“Last month, the number of home listings dropped 26.8% compared with the same time a year earlier. This meant there were about 177,000 fewer homes listed in what’s already typically a slower month due to the holidays and colder weather. . . .”

What Does All of This Mean for You?

For a buyer, low inventory can be a challenge. You want to find the home of your dreams, and you don’t want to settle. But what if there just aren’t that many homes to choose from?

There is some good news. Experts are projecting more homes will soon become available thanks to sellers re-entering the market. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, shares this hope, but offers perspective:

“We expect that we’ll start to see a turnaround and inventory will stabilize and start to go up a little bit in 2022. . . . But that means we’re looking at inventory levels of roughly half of what we saw before the pandemic. For buyers, the market is likely to continue to move fast. If you see a home you like, you want to jump on it right away.”

Basically, inventory is still low, even though more homes are coming. But you shouldn’t put your plans on hold because you’re waiting for those additional houses to hit the market.  Instead, stick with your search and persevere through today’s low inventory. You can find your next home if you’re patient and focused.

Remember your goals and why finding a home is so important. Those things should be the driving force behind your search. Share them with your agent and be clear about your priorities. Your trusted advisor is your greatest support as you navigate today’s low housing supply to find the home of your dreams.

Bottom Line 

If you’re planning to buy this year, the key to success will be patience given today’s low inventory. Let’s connect to discuss what’s happening in Dunwoody and Sandy Springs, what homes are available, and why it’s still worthwhile to prioritize your home search today.