Karen Cannon

The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): 

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): 

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): 

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. For help navigating the market, election year or not, let’s connect.

Should you buy a home now or should you wait? That’s a big question on many people’s minds today. And while what timing is right for you will depend on a lot of other personal factors, here’s something you may not have considered.

If you’re able to buy at today’s rates and prices, it may be better to focus on time in the market, rather than timing the market.

The Downside of Trying To Time the Market 

Trying to time the market isn’t a good strategy because things can change. Here’s an example. For the better part of this year, projections have said mortgage rates will come down. And while experts agree that’s still what’s ahead, shifts in various market and economic factors have pushed back the timing of when that’ll happen. Here’s how that’s impacted homebuyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. As U.S. News says:

“Those who put off buying a home during the past few years as they were holding out for lower mortgage rates have been left out of the market . . . mortgage rates have stayed higher for longer than previously expected, keeping monthly housing payments elevated. In other words, affordability didn’t improve for those who chose to wait.”

This is why timing the market may not pay off if you’re ready and able to buy now.

The Proof Is in the Pudding: How Homeowners Benefit from Rising Home Prices

Delaying your plans also means missing out on the equity you’d gain if you went ahead with your purchase today. And the potential equity gains that are at stake may surprise you.

Each quarter, Fannie Mae releases the Home Price Expectations Survey. It asks over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists what they forecast for home prices over the next five years. In the latest release, experts are projecting home prices will continue to rise through at least 2028 (see the graph below): 

To give these numbers context, let’s take a look at a breakdown of what you stand to gain once you buy. The graph below uses a typical home’s value to show how a home could appreciate over the next few years using those HPES projections: 

In this example, let’s say you went ahead and bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. Based on the expert forecasts from the HPES, you could gain more than $83,000 in household wealth over the next five years. That’s not a small number.

This data helps paint the picture of why time in the market really matters.

The Advice You Need To Hear If You’re Ready and Able To Buy Now

Right now, you may be focused on what’s happening with mortgage rates and how those impact your monthly payment, but don’t forget to factor in home prices.

Prices are expected to continue climbing, just at a more moderate pace. And while a moderate rise in prices may not be fun for you now, once you own a home, that growth will be a huge perk. That’s the time in the market piece.

Sure, you could try timing the market, but the equity you’ll be missing out on in the meantime is something to seriously consider. If you’re ready and able to buy now, you have to decide: is it really worth waiting?

Rather than focusing on timing the market. It’s better to have time in the market.

As U.S. News Real Estate sums up:

“There’s never a one-size-fits-all answer to whether now is the right time to buy a home. . . . There’s also no way to predict precisely what the market will do in the near future . . . Perfectly timing the market shouldn’t be the goal. This decision should be determined by your personal needs, financial means and the time you have to find the right home.” 

Bottom Line

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember it’s time in the market, not timing the market. And if you want to get the ball rolling and set yourself up for those big equity gains, let’s connect to make it happen.

As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.

Home Prices Are Expected To Climb Moderately

Home prices are forecasted to rise at a more normal pace. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from seven of the most trusted sources in the industry:

The reason for continued appreciation? The supply of homes for sale. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“One thing that seems to be pretty solid is that home prices are going to continue to go up, and the reason is that we don’t have housing inventory.”

While inventory is up compared to the last couple of years, it’s still low overall. And because there still aren’t enough homes to go around, that’ll keep upward pressure on prices.

If you’re thinking of buying, the good news is you won’t have to deal with prices skyrocketing like they did during the pandemic. Just remember, prices aren’t expected to drop. They’ll continue climbing, just at a slower pace.

So, getting into the market sooner rather than later could still save you money in the long run. Plus, you can feel confident experts say your home will grow in value after you buy it.

Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down Slightly

One of the best pieces of news for both buyers and sellers is that mortgage rates are expected to come down a bit, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association(MBA), and NAR (see chart below):

When you buy, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference in your monthly payments. For sellers, lower rates will bring more buyers back into the market, which can help you sell faster and potentially at a higher price. Plus, it may help you get off the fence, if you’ve been hesitant to sell due to today’s rates.

Home Sales Are Projected To Hold Steady

For 2024, the number of home sales will be about the same as last year and may even rise slightly. The graph below compares the 2024 home sales forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR to the 4.8 million homes that sold last year:

The average of the three forecasts is about 5 million sales in 2024 – a small increase from 2023. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why:

“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales.”

With more inventory available and mortgage rates expected to go down, a few more homes are expected to be sold this year compared to last year. This means more people will be able to move. Let’s work together to make sure you’re one of them.

Bottom Line

If you have any questions or need help navigating the market, reach out.

Purchasing or selling a home is a significant milestone in anyone’s life, and it comes with a slew of responsibilities and decisions. One of the most crucial steps in this process is the home inspection. For both buyers and sellers, a thorough home inspection is essential to ensure a transparent and smooth transaction. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore the importance of home inspections from both perspectives and shed light on how to make the most of this critical stage in the real estate journey. 

Home Inspections for Buyers:  

1. **Understanding the Purpose of a Home Inspection:**

   When you’re in the market to buy a home, a home inspection is your opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the property’s condition. It helps you uncover potential issues, safety concerns, and the need for repairs or maintenance. 

2. **Choosing the Right Inspector:**

   Selecting a qualified and experienced home inspector is crucial. Look for someone who is licensed, has a good reputation, and is thorough in their assessments. Ask for recommendations from your real estate agent or friends who have recently purchased homes. 

3. **Accompanying the Inspector:**

   Whenever possible, be present during the inspection. This allows you to ask questions, seek clarifications, and gain insights into the property’s maintenance requirements. 

4. **Reviewing the Inspection Report:**

   Once the inspection is complete, carefully review the report provided by the inspector. It should detail all findings, including any issues or potential problems. Use this report to negotiate with the seller for repairs or price adjustments.   

5. **Making Informed Decisions:**

   Armed with the inspection report, you can make an informed decision about whether to proceed with the purchase, negotiate for repairs, or reconsider the deal altogether if significant issues are uncovered. 

**Home Inspections for Sellers:** 

1. **Preparing for the Inspection:**

   As a seller, it’s in your best interest to ensure your home is in the best possible condition before the inspection. Address minor repairs, clean and declutter, and make sure all systems (plumbing, electrical, HVAC) are in working order.   

2. **Choosing to Pre-Inspect:**

   Some sellers opt for a pre-listing inspection, which can reveal any issues in advance. While this may require upfront costs, it can help you address problems before they become obstacles in the sale.  

3. **Being Transparent:**

   Disclose any known issues or defects to the buyer and their inspector. Honesty can help build trust with potential buyers and prevent future disputes. 

4. **Negotiating After the Inspection:**

   In most cases, buyers will request repairs or a reduction in the sale price based on the inspection report. Be prepared to negotiate and be open to reasonable requests to keep the deal on track. 

5. **Completing Repairs:**

   If you agree to make repairs, ensure they are completed by qualified professionals and provide documentation to the buyer as proof of the work done. 

**Conclusion:** 

In the world of real estate, home inspections are a vital part of the buying and selling process. For buyers, inspections provide peace of mind and the opportunity to make informed decisions. For sellers, they offer a chance to showcase the home’s condition and address any issues transparently. 

Both buyers and sellers should approach home inspections with a cooperative mindset, understanding that they serve the common goal of ensuring a fair and smooth transaction. By following the steps outlined in this guide, you can navigate the home inspection process with confidence, making it a valuable tool in your real estate journey. 

In July, the real estate market in Dunwoody, Sandy Springs, and the surrounding areas maintained its robust demand. Similar to the nationwide trend, there was a slight increase in supply compared to previous months. However, this increment was insufficient to counterbalance the persistently strong seller’s market, as the supply levels remain at only half of what they were in 2019.

Key Points

– Dunwoody’s supply of homes is down considerably compared to this time last year and 2021.

–  The average sales price in Dunwoody continued to increase from June and is considerably higher than 2022 and 2021’s July average sales price.

– In both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs, houses are sitting on the market for slightly longer.

Average Sales Price

In July, there was a consistent upward trend in the average sales price within Dunwoody, reaching a notable $830,030. This marks a substantial 42% surge from the previous year’s figure of $584,760. Conversely, Sandy Springs experienced a slight decline from $777,831 in June to $714,903 in July. However, it’s worth noting that the average sales price in Sandy Springs remains comparable to the levels observed during the same period last year.

In summary, Dunwoody witnessed a significant increase in average sales price compared to the previous year, while Sandy Springs demonstrated stability in line with its past performance.

Average Days on Market

During the month of July, both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs experienced a rise in the duration that houses remained on the market. In Dunwoody, the average days increased from 10 to 15, a pattern consistent with historical trends —18 days in July 2021 and 12 days in July 2022. In contrast, Sandy Springs saw a more pronounced deviation, with the average days on the market increasing from 27 to 32. This notable shift stands in contrast to previous years’ data.

In summary, July brought an increase in the time houses spent on the market in Dunwoody and Sandy Springs. While Dunwoody’s trend aligned with past years, Sandy Springs displayed a more significant departure from its historical pattern.

Months Supply of Homes for Sale

Sandy Spring and Dunwoody both saw an a small increase in months supply from June to July. Compared to this time last year, Dunwoody is showing a 27% decrease in months supply. Sandy Springs, on the other hand, is showing a 41% increase compared to this time last year.

Homes for Sale

In July, both Dunwoody and Sandy Springs observed a modest rise in the number of new homes available for sale. Dunwoody witnessed a slight increase from 28 homes in June to 33 homes in July, indicating a 47% decrease compared to June 2022 when there were 62 homes available. Similarly, Sandy Springs experienced a small increase from 145 homes in June to 148 homes for sale, representing a mere 4% decrease compared to the previous year.

Pending Sales

In July, the number of pending sales in Sandy Springs continued to dip, reaching 69 compared to 77 in June. Similarly, Dunwoody decreased from 33 to 24 pending sales. When compared to July 2022, Sandy Springs observed a 33% decrease in pending sales, as it had a total of 84 pending sales during that period. In contrast, Dunwoody experienced a significant 47% decrease from July 2022 when there were 43 pending sales.

Key Takeaway

In brief, as the supply once again decreased, we observed a rise in the average sales price. To put it plainly, the availability of homes for sale is insufficient. Buyers are faced with limited choices, which is why if you’re contemplating selling, collaborating with an agent to formulate a well-thought-out strategy for pricing and marketing can make your house stand out. Seize the opportunity today and get in touch with our team to gain insights into market trends and discover how our expertise can assist you in reaching your real estate goals.

*All data from First Multiple Listing Service. InfoSparks© 2023 ShowingTime.